Bitcoin, crack or not? – After a year 2022 depression and despair, this unexpected bitcoin color recovery (BTC) is doing a world of good. The beginning of January may predict greener horizons for 2023. However, in this still turbulent macroeconomic context, caution is still necessary. Here’s whatArthur Hayesformer CEO of BitMEX exchange, points out in his detailed analysis. What will BTC do this year? Bullrun or announced crack? Decryption.
Bitcoin Price: Arthur Hayes Predictions for 2023
Bitcoin in 2023, different scenarios
The co-founder of the BitMEX platform, Arthur Hayes, already had us shared his knowledge late last year regarding the outlook for bitcoin price appreciation. At that time he clearly announced the color. Bitcoin will be consumed in the coming years with the inevitable return of central bank magic money. At this time, in October 2022, the price of Bitcoin fluctuates between $19,000 and $20,000. Consider a situation similar to today, an imminent FTX bankruptcy.
However, this is a long-term view that, as crypto-believers, we have few doubts about. Central banks being what they are, indeed, money printing is not about to stop. And neither is the devaluation of our currencies. However, in the short term, in 2023, we would not be safe from another cataclysm… This is scenario of Arthur Hayes which we will detail shortly.
First of all, what explains the recent rise in the price of Bitcoin?
- Bitcoin is experiencing a simple return to its support from $16,000, without real underlying demand. In this case, the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise at this price level until liquidity returns favoring bull markets.
- These are market players who predict return of the money printing press of the FED (US Federal Reserve) and the famous “pivot “. In this case, two possibilities:
- Scenario A: Market players are wrong. The Fed remains in its positions and does not rotate. Bitcoin is then likely to return to visit the November 2022 lows.
- Scenario B: of The FED is actually rolling. Bitcoin continues its ascent and begins the beginning of the next uptrend.
Hayes’ theory: CPI numbers aren’t everything
For Hayes, we should have a mix between scenario 1 and scenario 2A. And, it is this doubt that prevents his finger from pressing the big green button” Purchase “. Indeed, according to him, inflation figures measured by the indicator CPI (Consumer Price Index) of course they are declining. But it wouldn’t be them Jerome Powellthe patron saint of the Fed, is watching with the utmost attention.
Typically, Americans’ purchasing power right now appears to be very little affected by rate hikes. That encourages inflation and turns out to be in total contradiction with the goal that Powell has set for himself. Thus, the PEF manager could still find plenty of reasons to keep raising his rates, taking the whole market from behind. However, the latter hates unpleasant surprises.
“If Powell ignores the CPI numbers and continues to reduce his money supply, it will send the US credit market into a fractious phase, creating a “Oh crap moment » for the Fed, causing them to aggressively follow in their footsteps. »
Financial markets: soft landing or burst like March 2020?
Therefore, the question is not if the banknote printer will reopen, but when and how it will be. Will we avoid a crash or not in 2023? For Hayes, Powell is underestimating inflation, which could prompt him to continue his rate hikes. But he could well have underestimated the epidermal reaction of the markets after the point of no return has been passed.
For Hayes, two events could cause the Fed to announce its pivot so expected:
- Powell is effectively relying on CPI numbers, which have been falling for several months now. A resorption of inflation, a soft landing and a micro-recession later, the money machine restarts and here we are again with a vengeance. Spoilers: this is not Hayes’ thesis. This soft landing is likely to occur as temporary inflation of the previous year.
- The US credit market somehow cracks, leading to a March 2020-style market meltdown. The FED, in a panic, urgently plans a crisis conference to announce the end of monetary tightening (QT, Quantitative tightening in English) and the reopening of the ticket machine (QE, Quantitative easing in English).
In both cases, the ticket machine has been restarted, but not in the same way. It is very likely that, in the coming years, Bitcoin will continue to grow to higher and higher horizons, fueled relentlessly by the government’s abundant printing of money. However, in the short term, for 2023, there is still uncertainty. And the Bitcoin bear may sink a little deeper before then get the snout out of its lair for good.
The dominoes are starting to fall one by one, allowing Bitcoin to gain a little more traction each day. On your side, wait no longer to join the greatest modern monetary revolutions! Go sign up for AscendEX. To trade cryptocurrencies without breaking the bank, take advantage of a 10% discount on trading fees (trade link, see terms on page).