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Decoding Josette Sicsic, Futuroscopie

Qualitative trends, quantitative trends, marketing trends, sociological trends, trends of supply, demand, yesterday, today, tomorrow… trends, without always being well defined, and sometimes even without specifying the method for their identification. Not escaping the rule, the tourism sector produces as much as others. Even more so, since online surveys make it possible to publish surveys whose statistical detail gives the appearance of seriousness.
To make some sense of this huge mess that the months of January have become, we’ve listed a few polls and reviewed their interpretations, making it more or less clear what future they seek to illuminate.

What are the trends of 2023?  Author drogatnev
What are the trends of 2023?  Author drogatnev

What are the trends of 2023? Author drogatnev

For the rental giant, seven trends are emerging for the future. And they are nothing revolutionary.

Thus, in what it considers to be “ the largest travel study conducted to date proposes: the rise of virtual reality as a source of inspiration, the rise of “off-grid travel” ie, more or less unusual trips, the development of travel research allowing ” push one’s limits “, the development of the offer of physical and mental well-being, the combination of leisure travel/professional travel and return travel” NOSTALGIA (which however is nothing new as it motivates many of the journeys of “ repeaters “.

At least, Booking is decidedly optimistic despite uncertain economic conditions for this month. According to her predictions, the French will continue to favor travel in 2023.

Half of them say, in fact, that affording a vacation remains one of the best investments there is, while staying mindful of your budget : Therefore, 57% will take advantage of promotions, 60% will use the advantages of loyalty programs or book in advance to take advantage of the most favorable rates!

Travel companies remain very cautious

On this last point, while most polls are optimistic and happy with the effect that “revenge trip will have at the departure rate, the EDV Holiday Observatory prefers to moderate its predictions.

Indeed, as they rightly point out that the French on holiday spend more, for at least three reasons: price increase, in particular those of air transport, “ revenge trip “and slight increase in length of stayJean Pierre Mas clarifies the following point.

According to him, ” a part of the population that had access to holidays makes decisions in favor of purchasing power, to the detriment of holidays. And, he is right to point this out. As shown by a study on the social climate conducted by the FIFG.

Read also: Travel: the brokered sector loses 30% of customers this winter

For FIFG: beware of the dangers of social explosion

Conducted in early January in partnership with Sud radio and Fiducial, this survey specifies that: almost one in two French people (48%) is revolted by the current economic and social situation in France (+1 point compared to December 2022), 32% say they are resigned (+2 points compared to December) and only 2% appear enthusiast.

Along with this low level of optimism, a large majority of French (79%) think that in the coming months, France could experience a social explosion with the emergence of a movement of the same type as that of the yellow vests. The highest figure recorded since 1998 except for November 2020 when it reached 85%.

Even more alarming, according to Ifop, almost one in two French people (52%) want France to experience a social explosion in the coming months with the emergence of a movement of the same type as that of the Yellow Vests!

Which means that barring a miracle, initiation rates will not increase this year.

Mabrian confirms the increase in the offer of nature and well-being!

As for this Spanish company specialized in Tourist Intelligence, we can see that the year 2022 was indeed synonymous with the recovery of tourism for traditional destinations in Europe, the Caribbean and the Middle East. In addition, Mabrian revealed interest in tourism activities related to natural, active and wellness tourism! Which do not constitute revolutionary discoveries.

But more interesting are the predictions for destinations based on an analysis of the offer of these three products, connecting and accommodation capacities. After analyzing 700 destinations, here are the 2023 rankings: Bali, which offers 45% more new routes and a 115% increase in inbound destinations and attractive fares, comes out on top.

Crete climbs to the second position, already positioned very well last year. On the podium, follow the Algarve then Antalya, whose hotel rates are the lowest and whose air connectivity is up 20%. It should also be noted that France and Italy manage to place two destinations in Mabrian’s Top 10. These are Brittany, Corsica, Sicily and Sardinia…

Skift explores sixteen quality trends

On the part of Skift, a particularly active and avant-garde American research firm, it is qualitative trends that drive the latest report. Sixteen in number, they are analyzed with great finesse and foresight.

We quote the most important of them, but do not hesitate to read the Report in detail. First of all, Skift emphasizes the numerical importance of Millennials (almost 2 billion) who are becoming the largest population in the world and are gradually recomposing the tourist map by choosing unexpected new destinations.

Another note: Skift confirms the development of the well-being offering combined with that of sustainability, as well as the continued growth of the work/leisure mix and that of remote work. In the field of luxury, the explosion of already very high prices, especially in the hotel industry, is analyzed as a major trend. Another very valuable observation: emotion is making a strong comeback at the heart of marketing in the hospitality sector.

as for ” time sharing “, a somewhat forgotten formula, he reinvents himself, but in a flexible version much more to the taste of our contemporaries. The week of fixed dates is over! As for house swapping, you can now collect points and choose flexible durations and dates. (We will come back to this…).

Finally, the authors of the report insist on the regained weight of India in the reopening of Asian tourism. Which really seems plausible given the quality of the Indian offering, especially the top of the range, wellness, outdoor activities! Finally, new AI performance is also on the agenda. Especially as these have become more accessible in terms of cost.

But with a caveat: seek to predict only what can be quantified Otherwise, trust the man!

Beware of beautiful surveys!

… And then we see all kinds of fancy surveys coming in reporting all kinds of observations and behavioral analyzes calculated on travel sites from questionnaires, allowing more for marketing and promotion than drawing formal conclusions about behavior certain.

In this way, a recent survey published by eDreams highlights that 40% of French people aspire to take a humanitarian trip! Among the motivations: we find: Helping the local population (47%). Help children (44%). Protect from nature (42%). Help animals (39%)!

Of course, all this is not fake. But, these are only goals which very few will be realized! As for Holidu, it offers the ranking of the favorite cities of football fans! Why not?

And to get back to Booking, here’s what hits the parade of the most sought-after destinations in the world: Sao Paulo, Budva in Montenegro, Pondicherry in India, Querétaro in Mexico… Can you believe it?

Josette Sicsic
Josette Sicsic

Josette Sicsic

Journalist, consultant, lecturer, Josette Sicsic has observed changes in the world for more than 25 years to analyze their consequences in the tourism sector.

Having developed the Touriscopie newspaper for more than 20 years, it is still at the bridge of current affairs where it deciphers the present to predict the future. On the website, direction futuroscopy, publishes forward-looking and analytical articles several times a week.

Contact: 06 14 47 99 04


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