Bitcoin Turns Green, Dollar Looks Gray – Le Point Macro Hebdo

Cryptocurrencies regain color – New week in the financial markets and another important week. As financial markets begin to rise again, fourth quarter results are expected later in the week. Among them, those of Netflix, Goldman Sachs or even Morgan Stanley. On the cryptocurrency side, a new exchange was called GTX would be under study, a project run by former crypto investment fund executives Capital with three arrows. Bitcoin draws capital and moves above $21,000. Are risky assets attractive again? This is the weekly Macro Point!

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Bitcoin is changing the momentum!

After several failed attempts to change the dynamic, is it different this time? Bitcoin reversed the momentum by closing higher 18400 dollarshe took the opportunity to join them resistance at $21,000 :

Bitcoin Price vs. Dollar (3D)

The price of Bitcoin has risen almost 40% from the lowest marked on 15500 dollars. Support built around $16,000 kept, and even allowed a beautiful bounce. of instability seems to be back for the king of cryptocurrencies. From now on, the course is at the ea level double resistance with the presence of bearish trend line. This has already pushed the price into March 2022, it could block again (red arrow). In the event of a break of this downtrend line, the price can move quickly to the right 24500 dollars. If buyers push, the price can catch up weekly resistance at $31,000 (green arrow).

The moment is wave, continues to show ascending bottoms and tops. At the moment, there are no alarming signals from the moment.

Bitcoin is punishing short sellers (shorts) as shown in this chart:

The increase in liquidation is the largest since July 2021.
Chart Showing Bicoin Liquidations Source: Glassnode

Derivatives markets allow traders tobuy or sell assets that are not in their possession. These contracts include clearance prices, and when the price reaches this price, you lose your entire position. Here we see that many actors were in shorts, the liquidation peak is the highest since late July.

Risk: Dollar index falls, gold continues to rise

The dollar returns to support at 102.5 points

The dollar index is falling and cryptocurrencies finally seem to be taking advantage of it, such as Bitcoin, which is rising almost 40% from the lowest. The dollar has returned to the level of Support 102.5 points :

The dollar index falls and evolves to the weekly support level at 102.5 points.
Dollar Index Chart (3D)

The dollar index is wave for many months. It continues to make new lows, but a bounce is possible at the level of Support 102.5 points. Indeed, it is a key level, which allowed for a rebound in May 2022 institutional biases (EMA 9/EMA 18) is on the downside, it may push the price back in case of a slight pullback.

You will have to wait for one honest break of support to see the scenario represented by the red arrow on the graph. As long as the dollar index is declining, risky assets can benefit.

Gold is in a short retracement zone at $1,900

Gold is the asset that benefits the most from a falling dollar. Currently, the course is in shorts refill area is located between 1900 dollars AND 1970 dollars :

Gold is moving into a resistance zone.
The price of gold against the dollar (3D)

Gold goes to one resistance zone. Indeed, shorts refill area (0.618-0.786 Fibonacci retracement) is a resistance zone, where sellers can regain control. You also have to imagine that buyers at the bottom of the range will want to get EARNINGS, and this is a great area to get some profits. It is possible that the price mark pauseand that it is going right 9 and 18 moving averages.

The moment is wave, the move even looks very strong (bullish trend line trend). The price may have to stop as it rises in a straight line from the low marked at 1615 dollars.

The US market is at significant resistance levels

The S&P 500 could decline at $4,000

The S&P 500 is in touch with bearish trend line. This one already has refused the course three times :

The S&P 500 is in contact with the downtrend line.
S&P500 price against the dollar (3D)

Resistance to 3900 dollars it appears to be outdated but not yet earned. Indeed, bearish trend line may refuse the course again. Also, the course is at the level of first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement), a resistance not negligible. If buyers manage to break these resistances, the price could go higher resistance at $4100 then straight shorts refill area between 4300 dollars AND 4500 dollars.

The moment is solid, it will be necessary to continue to show ascending bottoms and tops. A powerful move may appear in case of the above development 58 of RSI. In fact, it is a blocked level for several months.

Towards a rejection for NASDAQ?

NASDAQ can also be to refuse at the level of bearish trend line :

The NASDAQ is near a downtrend line.
NASDAQ price against the dollar (3D)

In case of rejection in bearish trend linethe price may drop straight bracket at $9,700. On the other hand, in case of a break in the downtrend line, the price can withstand a rise until the next day resistance at $12,000. This is an important resistance that will need to be broken to find colors in this asset.

Momentum is near the downtrend line, a rejection may occur in the coming days. Momentum is building cONTRACT in the long term, the exit from this triangle can bring instability. In the event of a break at the top of the triangle, bullish volatility may emerge.

of Bitcoin regains short-term bullish momentum. Momentum is clearly bullish, but a rejection remains possible at the downtrend line level. This will need to be broken to find the colors in this asset. The dollar index continues to fall, gold and risk assets are gaining. Gold is in a resistance zone, a breakout can be seen here. The US market in turn is close to significant resistance, sellers have the opportunity to regain control of the course. Risky assets are starting to become attractive again, will 2023 allow for a recovery?

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