Because AEX and other European stock exchanges were closed yesterday, our price forecast will appear once on Tuesday. Of course, we look at the expected evolution of the prices of the most important investments. With our price forecast you can start your own investment research.
We use our trust approach. So first we look at general economic factors. We then do a reality check on our price forecast from last week. We then consider for each investment whether specific fundamental factors should be taken into account. We then complete our price forecast with technical trend analysis and oscillators.
For all pricing, analysis, and comparisons, we use prices as they were on digital price boards before AEX opened.
General Economic Fundamentals Week 16
If we look at the economic calendars, a regular shortened trading week awaits us, in which of course the situation in Ukraine, inflation and Corona developments in China hang above the market.
In addition, Europe publishes today the figures for industrial production and trade balance for February.
On Wednesday the Fed will publish the beige book and we will see the IPCA for March in Europe. These provide an indication of changes in buyer behavior and inflation in Europe.
On Thursday we expect European data on preliminary consumer confidence for April and US unemployment data.
On the crypto agenda, we do not see any items that could affect the market as a whole.
AEX stock analysis week 15
We forecast a neutral price trend for the AEX. This turned out to be true. The AEX recorded a result of +0.46%. Additionally, we saw a number of confirmed buy and sell signals. We repeat this here with the actual results.
Buy signals were for: Energy Transition Partners BV (ENTPA) -, Crystal Peak Acquisition (CPA1), Nedap (NEDAP) -6.14%, Oci (OCI) +1.74%, Aegon (AGN) +3, 58%, Royal Ahold Delhaize (AD) -4.44%, ASR Nederland (ASR) +3.34%, NN Group (NN) +1.40%, Amsterdam Commodities (ACOMO) +1.22%, Geojunxion NV (GOJXN) +11.65%, Beter Bed Holding (BBED) -2.47% and JDE Peets (JDEP) +1.04%.
Confirmed sell signals were for: Holland Colors (HOLCO) -0.33%, Hal Trust (HAL) +0.29%, Allfunds Group PLC (ALLFG) +0.49%, Pegasus Europe (PACE) -, Avantium (AVTX) -4.31%, Ctac (CTAC) -0.25%, ASM International (ASM) -2.23%, Motork PLC (MTRK) +5.20%, BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI) -3, 04% and Epic Acquisition Group (EPIC) -1.98%.
Now that we are up to date, it is time to look forward.
The AEX forecast for week 16
In addition to general fundamental factors, there are also fundamental factors specific to the AEX. Let’s look at these first. We then look at technical trend analyzes and oscillators.
Fundamental analysis AEX shares week 16
Also this week we see a series of ex-dividend prices. In addition, the first quarterly figures for the first quarter are published.
Based on the stock docket, we expect February corporate investment and March unemployment data (pre-stock) on Wednesday (pre-stock).
On Thursday we expect figures on consumer spending in February. Also, consumer expectations are noted in April (both before the stock market). Dutch government debt figures (Q4 2021) and real estate figures for March will be released on Friday.
AEX Stock Technical Analysis Week 16
If we look at the oscillators, we see a neutral signal for the AEX. Technical trend analysis shows a strong sell signal.
AEX Price Forecast Week 16
In view of the stock market’s broken week, regular docket and cautiously negative technicals, we also expect a neutral to slightly negative week for the AEX as a whole in the coming week.
In addition, we also see a number of confirmed buy/sell signals this week, which we will of course list.
Confirmed buy signals are for: IEX Group NV (IEX), Almunda Professional NV (AMUND), NX Filtration (NXFIL), Pharming Group (PHARM), Galapagos (GLPG), JDE PEETS (JDEP), Amsterdam Commodities (ACOMO) , NN Group (NN), Aegon (AGN), Wolters Kluwer (WKL), Basic Fit (BFIT) and Arcelormittal SA (MT).
Confirmed AEX sell signals this week are for: Cabka NV (CABKA), Kendirion (KENDR), Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize NV (AD), Vopak (VPK), Allfunds Group PLC (ALLFG), ASM International NV (ASM), Vivoryon Therapeutics NV (VVY), Just Eat Takeaway.com NV (TKWY), Tie Kinetix (TIE), Envipco (ENVI), New Sources Energy NV (NSE), Value8 (VALUE), and Epic Acquisition (EPIC).
Now we see that the AEX opened lower.
Week 15 Index Futures Analysis
We forecast a neutral to slightly positive week for index futures. This turned out to be true. Results ranged from -0.23% for E-mini USD-denominated futures (FTU1!) to +0.55% for Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures (NQ1!).
Future price forecast index week 16
For the week ahead, the technical trend analyzes are mostly showing (strong) sell signals with 2 exceptions. These are a buy signal for the USD-denominated Ibovespa (IBV1!) and a strong buy signal for the USD-denominated E-mini futures (FTU1!).
The oscillators are mostly neutral. Therefore, they do not confirm buy signals. They do confirm the sell signals for E-mini Russell 1000 Index futures (RS11!) and E-mini Dow Jones futures (YM1!).
Overall, we expect a slightly negative week for index futures.
Dutch government bond analysis week 15
We forecast a neutral to slightly negative week for Dutch government bonds. This turned out to be true. The results ranged from -0.02% (duration 3 years) to -0.63% (duration 30 years).
Price Outlook for Dutch Government Bonds Week 16
For the next week, the oscillators show neutral signals with 2 exceptions. These are for Dutch government bonds with a maturity of 2 years (sell signal) and 7 years (buy signal). Technical trend analyzes show strong sell signals without exception. Therefore, we maintain our expectation of a neutral to slightly negative week.
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Gold and oil price analysis week 15
We forecast a neutral to slightly negative price outlook for the price of oil last week. We were more positive on the price of gold with a (slightly) positive expectation.
Our expectations about the price of oil turned out to be correct. This increased by 0.79%. We were a little too positive for the price of gold. With a result of 0.25%, a neutral expectation would have been more appropriate.
Price outlook for gold and oil week 16
For the actual price, technical trend analyzes show strong buy signals. However, the oscillators remained neutral. Therefore, we expect neutral to slightly positive oil prices.
For the price of gold, based on technical trend analysis, we also see strong buy signals, but the oscillators are showing sell signals. We expect a neutral to negative price development for the gold price.
FOREX analysis week 15
We forecast a neutral to slightly negative price trend with a confirmed buy signal for Norwegian Krone futures (NOK1!) and confirmed sell signals for Japanese Yen futures (6J1!) and New Zealand Dollar futures ( 6N1!).
The general expectation turned out to be correct. Prices varied greatly between +1% and -1%. The exception was the Japanese yen, which actually filled the sell signal at -1.47%. The sell signal for New Zealand dollar futures was also confirmed by the market with a weekly result of -0.80%. Norwegian Krone beat our expectations based on signs of -0.85%.
FOREX Price Forecast Week 16
Over the next week, the oscillators will remain largely neutral. We see exceptions for the Turkish Lira (TRL1!), Micro EUR/USD futures (M6E1!), and Swiss Franc futures (6S1!). Brazilian Real futures (6L1!) and South African Rand futures (6Z1!) are the exceptions with sell advice.
Technical trend analysis shows mixed signals, but hardly neutral. The signals are exactly opposite for the exceptions in the oscillators. Therefore, we anticipate a neutral to slightly negative week for FOREX.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies analysis week 15
The crypto market works 24/7 and we see it in the results. While yesterday’s weekly and monthly results were still mostly negative, we have seen a strong recovery in prices since yesterday afternoon.
This is reflected in the weekly results for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These are now positive, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) leading the top 25 with a weekly return of +13.20%. Thanks to the strong recovery, Bitcoin (BTC) has a weekly result of +2.82%.
Of course, the monthly results are also positively influenced, although to a lesser extent. We also see this. There are positive results to note. The biggest gain among the top 25 cryptocurrencies over 30 days is for Near Protocol (NEAR), trading +50.26%. However, significant losses are also recorded for 30 days. During this period, Cosmos Hub (ATOM) is the biggest loser among the top 25 with 16.18%, Bitcoin (BTC) is also in the red with a result of -3.51% over 30 days.
Cryptocurrency prices are recovering this morning. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at +4.59% at the time of writing. However, the biggest gain of the top 25 cryptocurrencies is for Terra (LUNA) with +16.23%. Of course, you can see all the results and prices of cryptocurrencies live 24 hours a day on the Tradeincrypto.com site.
Bitcoin and Crypto Price Forecast Week 16
So far, the market is lagging behind all the bullish signs that we see according to various analyses. That’s why we’re also keeping a close eye on the market this week by sharing our Bitcoin and crypto update twice a day (around lunchtime and after the US market closes) on our sister site WANT. NL.
That it is not everywhere in crypto hosanna we see in the NFT market, where dizzying losses are suffered.
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Note: We never provide financial advice, so you may not interpret our contributions in that way. Always do your own research and make rational decisions about if, when, what and how much you want to invest in.
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