While there was some beautiful spring weather recently, last week snow howled through the streets. A comparison with the cryptographic charts is quickly made. Although… bitcoin price is still showing spring weather. Is change here too, or will spring weather turn into summer? Below is the analysis, but first – for those with less time – a summary:
Weekly Chart: Winter/Spring
– The last closed candle is red.
– However, the price has remained above the 20 EMA.
– MACD shows a bullish cross.
Daily Chart: Summer
– Exit the ascending triangle.
– Retest (consolidation) of resistance as support.
4-hour chart: Spring
– Fibonacci lines are respected. There is always a higher level negotiated.
It’s Monday. That means the candle for the week closed a few hours ago and is red. In the graph below indicated by a blue arrow.
This means that after two green candlesticks, now a red one has emerged. Is it that bad? Well, due to the increase in recent weeks, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) gives a positive signal: see blue circle. The blue line crosses the orange line. That is a bullish sign. And the fact that the last candlestick is red might not be too bad. In my analysis a week ago I wrote about what would be the best case scenario and it came true. This can be seen best on the chart where each candlestick represents a day.
An ascending triangle can be recognized on the daily chart. The bottom dotted line runs up while the red area at the top runs horizontally. The probability of a breakout to the top was the highest, and that happened early last week. See blue circle.
However, there is always the possibility of a fake. Then the price goes down again. You can talk about a breakout if the broken resistance is tested as support. And it seems that it has. The price fell again during the week and bounced off the level that was previously a resistance. After that, the price has moved slightly sideways; a sign of healthy consolidation.
At the top there is a green line: the MA-200. It stands for Moving Average and this line calculates the average of the last 200 candlesticks. The line has been touched for a while and there is a good chance that the MA-200 will be searched for again this week. A crossover will again be a positive sign.
Another widely used indicator is the Fibonacci retracement tool. On the chart where each candlestick represents 4 hours, you can see how well these lines are respected.
This indicator has been ‘pulled’ from the low of March 14 to the high of March 28. The lines between them indicate percentages. There has been a relapse in the line of 38.20%. After that, the price went up and at the time of writing a higher level is being tested – the 23.60% line. If you zoom out on this chart a bit, you can see that this ‘flat’ was also very important in the period from December 4th to January 5th. So these lines not only represent the current period, but can be repeated regularly.
In this way, little by little, level by level, progress is made. Looking up, $48,250 (EUR 43,800) is an important level to watch. Then the 49,500 dollars (44,900 euros). But April does what she wants. However, if the price falls further, the zone from which she escaped the price last week has been quickly reached. Breaking this floor means that spring will give way to winter rains and bitter winds. But we are not there yet. For now the sun is shining.